Glasner wins Guehi transfer battle at Liverpool's expense

The last-minute collapse of Marc Guehi's transfer to Liverpool is a story rooted in brinksmanship.

A game of poker - but who won? That is down to opinion.

Crystal Palace manager Oliver Glasner is arguably the saga's biggest winner. The Austrian got what he wanted all along - to keep his captain despite the financial ramifications on the club who have now lost a £35m cash injection with Guehi set to leave for nothing next summer.

Of course, Glasner, in that respect, has little to lose. He has less than 12 months left on his contract at Selhurst Park and has so far fallen short of signing an extension despite the club's efforts to renew.

As things stand, he will not be around to feel the disruption created by Guehi's exit and the difficulties posed by replacing him without an incoming transfer fee.

Palace will be £35m out of pocket although Eberechi Eze's £60m transfer fee and money from the new television rights deal could cushion the blow.

Glasner has openly criticised the club for their lack of transfer activity this summer and you wonder if losing Guehi against his wishes would have been the final straw.

Palace chairman Steve Parish has helped appease his manager's very public angst by keeping the central defender despite agreeing to sell Guehi to Liverpool earlier on deadline day.

On the flip side, Parish - together with Palace's ownership team - will be responsible for finding a financial solution to how they fund their next rounds of player recruitment without the money raised from Guehi's sale.

The impact of Liverpool's eventual failure to land Guehi will become clearer in time.

Are they one central defender short? There will certainly be a heavier burden on Virgil van Dijk, Ibrahima Konate - who limped off injured against Arsenal on Sunday - and Joe Gomez plus summer acquisition Giovanni Leoni, who is just 18.

But the real protagonist of this entire tale is Guehi, who played by the rules when other players did not this summer but missed out on his move to the Premier League champions.

That, of course, has arrived as a source of frustration for the 25-year-old.

But to call Guehi the loser in this plot of twists and turns would not be entirely accurate.

From a footballing perspective, he will continue to play regular first-team football at Palace - with Konate and Van Dijk at Liverpool that may not necessarily have been the case at Anfield.

In a World Cup year, that is priceless.

But, perhaps most pertinently of all, Guehi can dictate his own future. An England international available for nothing next summer. That is a rarity.

He can sign for a European side from January and a number of the continent's elite clubs have already registered an interest in taking Guehi next summer.

All of England's top clubs have also been on the phone. On a free transfer, Guehi's personal earning power will be far greater than it was this year.

So we should not feel too downbeat for Guehi.

Liverpool pursuit 12 months in the making

Liverpool gave consideration to a move for him last summer but ultimately fell short of proceeding with their interest.

But their designs on making Guehi a Liverpool player continued into last season. They view him as someone who can play alongside captain Van Dijk. With the Dutchman turning 35 next July, there is also a sense at Anfield that Guehi can eventually step into Van Dijk's shoes as Liverpool's main central defender.

Towards the end of last season, Liverpool - privately - made their intentions clear: they wanted to sign Guehi.

An element of that decision was born out of the continuing uncertainty over Konate's future. The France defender is out of contract at the end of the season and is yet to commit to a new deal.

It was decided that Liverpool would engage with Palace over Guehi this summer rather than wait until 2026 when he was available for nothing.

They knew Parish was a tough negotiator. Liverpool's CEO of football Michael Edwards is understood to have had first-hand experience of Parish's fierce negotiation style during discussions for Mamadou Sakho's move from Anfield to Selhurst Park in January 2017.

By all accounts, Liverpool's dealings with Palace over Christian Benteke's move from Merseyside to London six months earlier was not straight forward either.

If that was not enough, then Guehi's failed proposed switch to Newcastle last summer that saw Parish refuse a deal worth up to £65m following a series of rejected bids from the Magpies served as further warning.

Nevertheless, Jarrell Quansah's move to Bayer Leverkusen made Liverpool's decision for them with regards to moving for Guehi.

Liverpool's approach arrived in the second week of August. The timing of their engagement with Palace is interesting in that it came just a day after the two clubs met at Wembley in the Community Shield, a match the Selhurst Park side won on penalties.

At the time there were indications the occasion could be used to thrash out a deal for Guehi but it is understood no significant discussions took place at Wembley.

However, speaking after Palace's victory, Parish opened the door to Liverpool's approach by publicly declaring that he would have no choice but to consider letting Guehi leave given his contractual situation.

When Liverpool approached, sources have indicated they did so with an informal offer of £35m.

To Liverpool's surprise, Palace seemed receptive to the offer raising hope that their concerns of a fraught negotiation were unnecessary.

Indeed, Reds sporting director Richard Hughes is said to have even been preparing to get sign off on the deal from Liverpool's owners Fenway Sports Group given the initial discussions had appeared to be so painless.

All that was left was for Parish to accept. Liverpool waited. They waited some more.

Neither club wanted to blink. Liverpool believed their proposal was fair. Palace seemingly did not concur.

The acceptance of the offer never arrived and an impasse in discussions ensued.

Liverpool or nothing for Guehi

In the meantime, Guehi was getting on with his pre-season. The start of his summer was hampered by a slight hamstring complaint that required a scan and careful managing during their training camp in Austria.

But Guehi knew machinations were evolving in private. So did Glasner, whose messaging to Guehi has been consistent throughout the summer.

The Palace boss wanted Guehi to stay. His stance was understandable, of course - Guehi was his skipper and a key player in his team.

Glasner's contract also expires in the summer and the manager wanted them to ride the wave of uncertainty together.

At the time, Guehi did not have a decision to make.

Liverpool had not made a bid but he knew it was coming and was clear with his messaging to Glasner that, if the Reds did formalise their interest, it was something he would like to consider.

But Guehi did not agitate. It is not his style. He is the captain of the club, he has never taken that responsibility lightly.

Equally, however, Guehi did not need to force the issue. He was in the final 12 months of his deal.

It is likely the option of joining Liverpool next season will still be available to him, the fact he would be on a free transfer means he would earn significantly more.

Palace tried to offset the issue by offering Guehi a new contract but the defender declined the offer.

That was Palace's only genuine hope of starting an auction. But Guehi's intentions were clear: it was Liverpool or a free transfer next summer.

Guehi prepared to say farewell

The club-to-club impasse ceased following Palace's Europa Conference League qualifier in Frederikstad last Thursday as talks recommenced.

There was a clear view emerging last Friday night that all parties wanted to conclude a deal.

Liverpool improved up on their previous £35m offer by including a 10% sell on clause. Palace made a counter proposal of £35m plus an extra £5m in add-ons.

Palace faced Aston Villa on Sunday but talks were accelerating at such a pace that there was even some consideration to whether Guehi should travel to Birmingham for the game.

A farewell video had already filmed and edited such was the likelihood that Guehi would be leaving.

However, the squad were flying to the Midlands from 10am on Sunday and Guehi boarded the flight.

In the meantime, Palace tried to persuade Liverpool to include Joe Gomez on loan in the deal for Guehi. Liverpool rejected the proposal.

Eventually, Guehi played in the game at Villa Park and scored a brilliant goal in their 3-0 win. It seemed the perfect way to say goodbye.

Guehi's team-mates even implored him to bid farewell to Palace supporters on the pitch, but the defender refused and maintained his composure.

At that moment it appeared the end of Guehi's career at Palace was nigh.

But Glasner threw a spanner in the works, saying after the game that the club needed to keep Guehi if they were to have a successful season.

The Palace manager's stance was clear. Heading into the final hours of the window, however, the direction of travel was in opposition to Glasner's wishes.

The rug pulled from under him

Guehi travelled back to London with the Palace squad on Sunday night.

It was decided that if Liverpool and Palace were able to agree a deal that Guehi would undergo a medical and complete the formalities of his move at the Merseyside club's London offices before travelling north for his official unveiling.

Between 1.30pm and 3pm, a club-to-club agreement had been concluded and Guehi was given permission by Palace to undergo his medical.

At that moment, Guehi believed he was joining the Premier League champions, who were also about to confirm the capture of Alexander Isak for £125m. He had a medical which was over an hour long.

But Parish did not sit down with Guehi and his advisers until after 6pm following a fitness class at gym in Soho.

Little was Guehi to know that the rug would be pulled from under him, shortly after.

Among the conditions required for Guehi to join Liverpool were that Palace needed suitable defensive replacements before letting him depart.

They have completed the signing of Toulouse centre-back Jaydee Canvot . But at 19, the Frenchman is vastly inexperienced.

Palace approached Manchester City for Manuel Akanji but he was reluctant to move to south London.

Ousmane Diomande of Sporting was the club's first-choice option, but his £45m price tag was prohibitive. Roma defender Evan Ndicka was another they considered.

On deadline day, however, it emerged that they were in talks over a loan move for Brighton's Igor Julio.

At one point in the day, it looked as if a deal for Julio was in place only for the player to head east to West Ham.

And with that detour, Guehi's move to Liverpool effectively collapsed.

Adam Wharton, who has a groin issue, and Ismaila Sarr, who has injured his hamstring, are both expected to be out for at least a month, which did not help matters.

There remained hope of reviving the deal as we approached the 7pm deadline; the fact a deal sheet - an application for a time extension - was filed indicative to how close the transfer was to completion.

But sometimes it is the hope that kills. Parish explaining to Guehi why he could not sanction his move to Liverpool despite agreeing to do so just hours earlier.

How Guehi feels about it all may come up in the fullness of time, but you can imagine it has been difficult to process.