Gabriel Martinelli Arsenal decline questioned as Mikel Arteta again in the firing line

Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta faces questions over Gabriel Martinelli's decline (Image: Stuart MacFarlane/Arsenal FC via Getty Images)

Is this the end for Gabriel Martinelli?

The short answer, for now at least, is no . The Gunners did not sell the Brazilian, with interest never to the financial level that would have tempted Arsenal into a sale.

Martinelli's stay alongside Leandro Trossard meant the club did not make any further moves in the market for another left winger. There was known interest in Rodrygo of Real Madrid , but nothing aligned to make such a move possible.

Martinelli has been under the microscope of the fan base for the past two seasons, and not for positive reasons. After a brilliant 2022/23 season, where the Gunners shocked everyone to challenge Manchester City for the title, the then-22-year-old had his best-ever campaign.

He scored 15 goals and added five assists in the Premier League, a tally of goals that beat his 2023/24 and 2024/25 campaigns combined. It is reasonable, therefore, to believe that this was an anomalous campaign, and with his 15 goals outperforming a non-penalty expected goals (npxG) of 9.1, the winger truly was performing well above expectation.

The following season, his six league goals fell below the npxG of 6.8. His eight goals last season only just tipped him above the npxG of 7.4.

Some have argued that Mikel Arteta is to blame for his slump, that he is now too overcoached and that he is overthinking his game too much. However, the data does not necessarily align.

Arteta inherited Martinelli, and during the build-up to the 2022/23 season, Arteta integrated him into the line-up until he was an established starter. He outmuscled Emile Smith Rowe’s development on the left and made the position his.

His npxG from the 2019/20 season to 2022/23 would increase year on year: 2.2, 3.3, 7.3, and 9.1. The same can be said for his shot-creating actions per 90: 1.09, 3.20, 3.49, and 4.10.

He became harder to tackle as a player over these four seasons, too, with the percentage of take-ons being tackled dropping: 71.9%, 48%, 43%, 41.4%. But when we look at the seasons from 2023/24 to 2024/25, this reverses: 53.5% and 55.5%.

While shot-creating action per 90 maintained in 2023/24 at 4.10, it dropped to 2.91 last season. While in the two games so far this season, he has featured in, he has zero npxG.

This does not necessarily point to a coaching issue with Martinelli, therefore, and that is further supported by the consistent improvement across the board of the vast majority of players under Arteta's purview. Sadly, some players just decline, without it necessarily being related to their age, moving into what should be their 'peak' years.

The club's style has not necessarily drastically changed. A similar number of chances are being created and a similar number of goals conceded while, of course, maintaining their second-place league finish for three seasons - despite the injury crisis of the previous campaign.

Martinelli's decline could arguably be attributed to the arrival of Leandro Trossard in January of the 2022/23 season. Initially covering for the injured Gabriel Jesus in a central role, Trossard would push out Martinelli from many games, and he became less guaranteed to start under Arteta.

Instead of rising to the challenge, Martinelli has somewhat shrunken away from it. But the key trait that has never improved for the winger is his decision-making in the final third.

He persistently runs with his head down, failing to look up enough to spot teammates. There was another perfect example at Anfield in the first half, where a drive through the middle should have seen a pass to Gyokeres, but instead, he ended up conceding a Liverpool goal kick.

If Arsenal do sell Martinelli next summer, with one year left on his deal and an option for a year extension, the fee will likely not be close to the supposed £60million-plus asking price. It is a real issue for the club, and they mustn’t ignore it; otherwise, it could cost them greatly.