Casemiro: Should INEOS renew Man United midfielder’s contract?

“Leave the football before it leaves you.”

That scathing assessment of Casemiro by Jamie Carragher in May 2024, following Manchester United’s humiliating 4-0 defeat to Crystal Palace, has become etched into English football’s lexicon.

But it left an equally indelible mark in the Brazilian’s mind as well, one he became hellbent on disproving with no intention of departing Old Trafford in favour of an easy retirement home in the MLS or the Saudi Pro League.

Eighteen months on, it’s evident that while Casemiro’s legs may have left him, his ability with a football at his feet certainly has not. For the 36,189th time in Carragher’s life, the pundit was off the mark, even if there was a mountain of evidence to suggest he wasn’t.

Casemiro enjoyed a stellar debut campaign in English football after his blockbuster £70 million switch from Real Madrid in 2022.

Despite having won every major trophy on numerous occasions at the Santiago Bernabeu, Casemiro’s role was somewhat limited by the presence of Luka Modric and Toni Kroos either side of him – two of the best ball-playing midfielders of their generation.

At United, however, when deployed alongside players like Scott McTominay, Fred and Christian Eriksen, Casemiro’s scope to take ownership of the ball increased to match his dominance out of possession.

The Brazilian finished the season with seven goals and seven assists – an outstanding return for a defensive midfielder. He propelled his new side to their first trophy in six years, scoring in the final of the Carabao Cup against Newcastle, and returned them to the Champions League with a comfortable third-placed finish in the Premier League .

It would not have been an exaggeration to suggest he was one of, if not the best midfielder in England, certainly for large parts of the campaign at least. Even Casemiro has described it as his “best season” from an individual perspective.

“Individually, my best season as a footballer was the first with Man United I’m not saying collectively in terms of titles. Madrid’s UCL is the ultimate…but as a player, I think Old Trafford saw the best version of Casemiro in my first year.”

But while that season was a personal high, the following year – the disastrous 2023/24 campaign – would undoubtedly be his nadir.

Fresh from a superb first year, Erik ten Hag implemented a new system predicated on a high-press designed to force transitions as close to the opposition box as possible.

There was logic to the theory, given Bruno Fernandes’ creativity and the pace throughout United’s attack. But, as is often the case, theory rarely translates to practice – and in this example, practice produced some of the most pitiful performances in the history of the club.

United’s midfield in 2022/23 was founded on a tight-knit trio of Casemiro , Christian Eriksen and Bruno Fernandes in a 4-2-3-1 formation with a low block; the type of defensive compromise a manager makes in their first season at a new club. It was sensible.

United’s midfield the following season did not exist outside of Casemiro . Fernandes was played alongside new signing Mason Mount as two advanced number eights, instructed to drive up the pitch to press the opposition defence, abandoning their teammate in the process. This was the opposite of sensible; in fact, it amounted to footballing suicide.

It left Casemiro as the sole line of protection for the defence, while simultaneously being relied upon as the team’s deep-lying playmaker – an impossible task for virtually any midfielder in world football, let alone a 31-year-old, soon to turn 32, with only twelve months of experience in England.

The high-intensity nature of the system, which demanded an impossible numbers of sprints and distance covered by the United squad, led, naturally, to an acute rise in injuries as well. But Ten Hag refused to compromise on the set-up, despite the wealth of horrendous effects and results it was producing.

This destabilising concoction – a new but flawed system, a mountain of injuries, and an obstinate manager – led United to their worst campaign in the Premier League era. At least until Ruben Amorim said ‘hold my beer’ after arriving at Old Trafford the following year to replace Mr Obstinate.

The only thing which saved Ten Hag at the end of that dismal season was the unlikely triumph in the FA Cup , as the Red Devils beat their local rivals Manchester City 2-1 in the final.

Casemiro was not part of the matchday squad for the victory at Wembley, telling Ten Hag he was unable to play due to a tightness in his hamstring. He would not have started the match regardless, with the Dutch manager preferring a midfield pivot of Sofyan Amrabat and Kobbie Mainoo at that point in the campaign – a tacit acknowledgement his tactic had failed.

But it was an experiment which propagated the view that the “football had left” Casemiro , rather than the correct analysis: United were playing in a way which left their aging midfielder a shadow of his former self.

Casemiro is not blameless for his drop off in this period, a player of his experience and quality should have found better ways to cope. There was undoubtedly a decline in his physicality as well, which exacerbated the situation. Father Time comes for every player after all, sooner or later.

But to attribute this plummet in performance solely to age was myopic, particularly given every United star suffered a similar fate in this period, outside of the indefatigable Fernandes.

If Casemiro had played in a system designed to maximise his strengths while minimising the growing weaknesses – an obvious approach to take with your £70m asset – the narrative around the the Brazilian would have been drastically different.

To sign Mount – a number ten – for £60m to play alongside him as a ‘false eight’ in midfield was a bizarre decision; the polar opposite of the partner United needed to target. The football had not left Casemiro as much as any semblance of sense had left Ten Hag’s mind in how to construct a viable midfield in English football.

At the beginning of the 2024 summer transfer window, INEOS’s first in charge of United, Ten Hag came perilously close to losing his job.

The FA Cup success, coupled without an obvious candidate for the hierarchy to seamlessly replace him with, led to the reluctant decision by the new rulers at Old Trafford to keep the Dutchman, courtesy of a token one-year contract extension.

It was always an unhappy marriage destined for divorce, however – as proved less than four months after Ten Hag put pen to paper on that new deal.

INEOS sacked the former Ajax manager in October after a dismal start to the 2024/25 season, which showed little improvements from the previous campaign. United were 14th in the table at this stage.

Amorim, the exciting young coach who had overseen Sporting CP’s triumphant return to the summit of Portuguese football, arrived in Ten Hag’s place, bringing with him an enigmatic philosophy he would dogmatically implement.

His trademark 3-4-2-1 system has dominated the conversation around the club over the past twelve months. And in regards to Casemiro , it was a system with no room for him to have a voice, at least initially.

Amorim’s decision to operate with a two-man pivot, when the vast majority of managers line up with three in the middle of the pitch, places a huge amount of pressure on his midfielders.

The antidote to this numerical inferiority is for the centre-backs, wing-backs, or number tens, sometimes all three, to invert centrally to support the midfield, restoring the balance.

But it is a complicated system to hone with a new team in the world’s toughest division, especially midway through a campaign, with an unrelenting schedule of Premier League and European football, deprived of the benefit of pre-season.

It’s natural, therefore, that United’s midfield often became overloaded as the supporting network surrounding them were not attuned to the demands of their new roles. This, in turn, created the need for more legs in the centre of the pitch to cover the large gaps the incorrect application of Amorim’s system was creating.

And it was this which led to Casemiro’s relegation down the ranks under the Portuguese coach – a victim of his decline without the ball, rather than any reflection of his abilities on it.

Last week, Amorim revealed that the Brazilian had even fallen below Toby Collyer – the 21-year-old academy graduate currently on loan at West Brom – at this early stage of his tenure. Carragher’s statement six months prior was beginning to look prophetic, rather than the pathetic prediction it ended up being.

Casemiro refused to be dismayed by his new boss’s decision, however, remaining a professional presence in the dressing room and working even harder to improve his fitness and understand the intricacies of Amorim’s system.

And it paid dividends, for player and coach, with Casemiro slowly forcing his way back into the starting eleven over the next few months, particularly as United progressed through the Europa League, where the physical level is lower than the Premier League .

The Brazilian drove his side to the final of the competition, scoring twice and providing three assists at the quarter-final and semi-final stages.

United ultimately fell short in Bilbao, losing 1-0 to Tottenham Hotspur in a desperately disappointing display. But it’s a testament to Casemiro’s resilience that he started the game, having gone from one of the last options in Amorim’s squad in November to one of the first names on the team sheet by May.

And, inadvertently, the defeat to Spurs at the San Mames has allowed him to maintain this upturn in form into the new season. It’s even led to a recall to the Brazil national team under Carlo Ancelotti, with the Italian manager selecting Casemiro as captain for the Seleção last month.

The defeat in the final vanquished United’s hopes of securing European football for the 2025/26 campaign, with Amorim’s side languished a scarcely believable 15th in the league – one place worse than when the 40-year-old coach took over from Ten Hag and by far the club’s worst finish in the history of the Premier League .

On the flipside, the major benefit of this is that United have had one game a week for the vast majority of the season, aided by the embarrassing early exit in the Carabao Cup at the hands of League Two side Grimsby Town.

This has gifted Amorim more time to work with his squad in training at Carrington, without the (financially lucrative) burden of a midweek fixture on the continent to contend with. And the proof has been in the pudding, with United demonstrating a tangible improvement on the pitch, most notably in the past month.

Three wins on the trot – against Sunderland, Liverpool and Brighton & Hove Albion – has left United in fifth and transformed the mood around the Theatre of Dreams. Another three points on the weekend against Nottingham Forest would see the team climb to second, if only temporarily, based on results elsewhere.

Central to these improved performances and, more crucially, results has been the Brazilian central midfielder, with a stark contrast in United’s form with and without him. With Casemiro on the pitch, the Red Devils have conceded just 3 goals. In his absence, the tally climbs to 16.

The 33-year-old has been the biggest beneficiary of United’s relaxed schedule, with Luke Shaw a close second.

The pair were two of the most influential players on the pitch against Brighton last weekend in the team’s best win of the season. Neither has the fitness – Casemiro owing to age, Shaw due to the toll of repeated injuries – to manage two matches a week.

But both are more than capable of strong performances once a weekend. Which begs the question: has the football left a player if they are still capable of excellent football?

Regardless of whether the answer forces a certain Liverpudlian to eat a unhealthy portion of humble pie, it’s also one which INEOS will have to reach themselves this summer.

Casemiro’s contract – the most expensive at Old Trafford – expires at the end of the season, though the club retains the option to trigger an automatic twelve month extension. Twelve months ago, there would have been virtually no person in the Greater Manchester area advocating for this, outside of Mrs Casemiro .

Sensibly, there is zero chance INEOS activate this clause with the midfielder’s wages as they are. However, there is a growing sense United’s hierarchy may be willing to offer a new deal, on a reduced salary, given Amorim considers Casemiro an essential part of his squad. But would this be the correct move?

Well, that may depend on whether the reduced schedule, which has so greatly benefitted the Brazilian behemoth, is maintained. And, equally importantly, if he is willing to sacrifice a huge percentage of his pay, when there will undoubtedly be astronomical riches on offer in the Middle East.

United are intent on a return to Europe next season. It is considered one of the metrics by which Amorim’s position as head coach will be judged come May. If their current form is maintained, it is more than achievable – and Casemiro’s improved displays will be foundational to realising it.

But if he is forced to play twice a week, in a season where he will turn 35, the likelihood of Carragher’s assessment becoming true sky rockets. This would be reason alone to ensure it does not happen.

INEOS have also been seeking to drive costs down at Old Trafford over the past eighteen months – and Casemiro’s wage packet will be one they placed in their crosshairs the moment they stepped through the door.

Whether they would be willing to offer an extension that Casemiro would consider acceptable is a hypothetical only the respective parties can answer. But INEOS would be foolish to table a contract that is worth even one third of the current deal, given his role next season will be no more than a squad player.

United will almost certainly sign two new midfielders in the summer. At least one high-profile Premier League star will be targeted, be it Carlos Baleba, Elliot Anderson or Adam Wharton. Each option will cost in excess of £100m, once their wages and agent fees are included.

They would then be joining a unit which already includes club captain and talisman Fernandes, whose place in the starting eleven is set in stone, and Kobbie Mainoo and Manuel Ugarte, two players already struggling for minutes under Amorim, but who both have youth on their side in a way their Brazilian teammate does not.

To add a duo of quality midfielders to this trio, alongside an aging Casemiro in an elder statesmen role, borders on overkill, given there are only two slots for all six to fill within Amorim’s system -even with the prospect of more games to traverse next season.

INEOS have directed their scythe towards any area of the club they consider bloated since Sir Jim Ratcliffe’s co-ownership bid gave them the keys to Old Trafford. The idea that Amorim’s midfield will be immune from this approach is fanciful, no matter how much the Portuguese tactician may protest.

This could put Amorim and his bosses on a collision course over Casemiro – a player who Ratcliffe has publicly questioned why the club signed in the first place – and his future at Old Trafford.

Amorim was effusive in his praise of Casemiro following his standout performance against Brighton, telling the squad in no uncertain terms that the Brazil international was an example for all of them to look up to.

“[Casemiro] is so important for us. Today he run a lot. He had to press so high and then return, and he’s doing that. So, I’m really pleased with him. And the other guys need to look at Casemiro . He understands that football can change really fast,” Amorim stated .

“You just need to work for me. If you are the best one, or I think you are the best one to play the game, you are going to play the game if you do the right things.”

Casemiro’s current form is worthy of an extension. But the parameters which have precipitated this will no longer hold true next season. If he were to accept an offer that is commensurate with this new reality, the deal may make sense.

But if the Brazilian is unwilling to compromise on his wages to the extent required for INEOS to sanction a new contract, however, Amorim will have to accept his exit – and it will be the right choice by United’s rulers.

However, it would be a financial decision to let him go, not a footballing one, because the football has certainly not left him, regardless of what any Scouse pundit carelessly spits out on Sky Sports.

Featured image Justin Setterfield via Getty Images

online polls

The Peoples Person has been one of the world’s leading Man United news sites for over a decade. Follow us on Bluesky: @peoplesperson.bsky.social